Advanced statistics and fantasy football - the world of numbers and tactics

American Football is a sport built on complex tactics and intense physical duels. However, what fascinates many fans and players alike is the science behind the game – the world of statistics. Over the years, football analysts and teams have increasingly focused on advanced statistics to better evaluate player and team performance and to strategically plan games. For Fantasy Football enthusiasts aiming to lead their virtual teams to success, these statistics are invaluable.
In this article, we explore the key advanced statistics, their significance in football, and how they have revolutionized Fantasy Football strategies.

The Basics: Traditional and Simple Statistics
Before diving into advanced statistics, it’s worth understanding the basics. For decades, traditional statistics like passing yards, rushing yards, tackles, and touchdowns have been the primary metrics for evaluating a player's performance. These numbers provide a good overview of how productive a player has been in a specific game or over an entire season. However, they only tell part of the story.

For instance, a quarterback who throws for many yards is not necessarily an efficient player if they also throw many interceptions or only make short, simple passes. This is where advanced statistics come into play, offering a deeper analysis of a player’s performance and their impact on the game.

Advanced Statistics – A Deeper Dive into the Game

• Quarterback Rating (QBR) One of the most well-known advanced statistics in football is the Quarterback Rating (QBR). This rating aims to evaluate a quarterback’s performance holistically, taking into account not only passing yards or touchdowns but also the context of each play. QBR evaluates how a quarterback performs under pressure, how well they make decisions in critical moments (e.g., third downs or in the red zone), and how efficiently they manage the game. A QBR of 50 is considered average, while a score above 75 indicates an elite quarterback. For Fantasy Football players, QBR is a valuable tool to recognize which quarterbacks not only produce impressive stats but also lead their teams to success.
  
  
• Yards After Catch (YAC) Another important statistic, especially for wide receivers and running backs, is Yards After Catch (YAC). This stat measures the number of yards a player gains after catching the ball. A player with high YAC is often an explosive athlete capable of breaking tackles and gaining extra yards after the catch. In Fantasy Football, a player with high YAC can be extremely valuable, as they have the chance to earn extra points on every catch. Players like Deebo Samuel of the San Francisco 49ers or Tyreek Hill of the Miami Dolphins are known for their YAC abilities and are often highly ranked in Fantasy leagues.
  


• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) One of the most advanced and insightful statistics used for teams and players is Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). This metric evaluates the performance of a team or player compared to an average team while accounting for the strength of the opponent. DVOA helps to understand how well a team or player performs against strong or weak opponents. For Fantasy Football enthusiasts, DVOA is especially useful for identifying players who perform well against strong defenses and can score points even in tough matchups. A running back who posts high DVOA against a top defense is a reliable Fantasy player who can deliver points even in difficult games.
  


• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) CPOE is an advanced stat that measures how well a quarterback performs compared to expectations. It takes into account factors such as the distance of the target, the difficulty of the throw, and the pressure the quarterback is under. A quarterback with a high CPOE is able to complete passes considered particularly difficult, making them a valuable player. For Fantasy Football players, CPOE can help identify quarterbacks who not only throw simple passes but also excel in challenging situations, providing consistent points.
  


• Expected Points Added (EPA) One of the most comprehensive advanced statistics is Expected Points Added (EPA). This stat evaluates each play based on how many points the team is expected to score if the play is successful. EPA gives a more accurate idea of how efficient a player or team is by measuring the direct impact of each play on the result. In Fantasy Football, EPA is a great tool to identify players who not only produce static numbers but also have a positive influence on their team’s success. A quarterback or running back with a high EPA is generally a safe choice for Fantasy teams.
  

The Impact of Advanced Statistics on Fantasy Football
Fantasy Football is a game of strategy and knowledge. While simple statistics still play a role, advanced statistics like QBR, YAC, and DVOA are essential for understanding a player’s performance in greater detail. Fantasy players who use these metrics can better predict which players will succeed in specific situations or against certain opponents.

An example of this is the use of DVOA and EPA in weekly Fantasy matchups. Players facing defenses that are weak in certain areas (e.g., against the pass or run) can score higher points. If a Fantasy player knows their running back is going up against a defense weak in DVOA against the run, they can use this information to make the right starting lineup decisions.

Additionally, Yards After Catch (YAC) plays a crucial role in Fantasy leagues that award points per reception (PPR). Players who can gain yards after the catch have a higher potential for big plays and, consequently, for higher Fantasy points.

The Importance of Consistency in Performance
An often overlooked aspect of Fantasy Football is a player’s consistency. Players may have an extraordinary performance one week, only to significantly underperform the next. Advanced statistics like CPOE and EPA help identify players who perform consistently at a high level.
Quarterbacks who maintain a high CPOE across multiple games are generally more reliable than those with fluctuating performances. Fantasy players who monitor these metrics regularly have an advantage because they rely not only on spectacular performances but also on players who deliver consistent points throughout the season.

Advanced Statistics in the NFL and Their Importance for Teams
Not only Fantasy Football players but NFL teams themselves have increasingly begun to rely on advanced statistics. Teams like the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots heavily use data analytics to optimize player development, draft strategies, and game planning decisions. These analyses have helped teams identify high-potential players who may be overlooked by traditional statistics.

Conclusion: The New Era of Football
The use of advanced statistics has revolutionized the game both on the field and in the virtual world of Fantasy Football. While simple statistics like touchdowns and yards are still important, metrics like QBR, YAC, DVOA, and EPA offer deeper insights into a player’s true performance. Fantasy players who understand and apply these statistics are better equipped to make informed decisions and lead their teams to victory.
In the age of data analytics, football is not just a physical game but also a game of numbers – and those who master the numbers have the best chances of success, whether on the real or virtual gridiron.